Sunday, November 30, 2008

Learn Currency Exchange - 4 Tips for Trading Success

If you want to learn currency exchange then the 4 tips enclosed will help you achieve currency trading success. The tips are simple to learn easy to apply and will help you make great profits so lets look at them.

1. Success Comes From Within

This may seem obvious - but most traders fail to understand it and that's why there is such a huge market in people on the net telling you they can give you success all for a $100.00! Simply follow their automatic forex trading system and financial freedom can be yours. Of course, common sense tell you it's not true and its not. No one is going to give you money or success, you have to work for it and do your homework.

Forex trading relies on not just having a trading method but learning how to apply it with discipline. You will only ever be able to apply a method with discipline, if you have confidence in it and this means learning how and why it works and knowing why you will win with it.

If you don't have confidence when you hit some losses you won't be able to keep executing your system with discipline, so you have no system at all.

If you want to learn currency trading exchange correctly, then the first point to keep in mind is you're on your own and need to do your homework.

2. Keep It Simple

We live in a world where people admire complexity and cleverness - but it won't help you in forex trading and that actually is good news. The best currency trading systems are simple and you need to keep yours simple too.

Why?

The reason is - if you make a trading system to complicated, it has more elements to break and it will collapse in the brutal world of trading.

You can build a great forex trading strategy around: support and resistance, with a breakout methodology and a few confirming indicators and have a very robust method for success.

In forex trading your need a simple system that is robust and easy to understand, so you can have the confidence, to apply it with discipline, for forex trading success.

3. Do You Really Want to Make Money?

This may sound an odd question to ask but most people who set out to learn currency trading exchange don't appear to want to make money, they simply want the buzz of trading and act like gamblers.

How many novice traders for example try day trading as a methodology? Loads yet its guaranteed to lose money as the logic is flawed. Other traders trade news stories and chat in forums. These people don't have money making on their mind as their first consideration, its all about excitement and emotion and that's a sure fire way to lose.

If you want excitement then do something else, like go the casino - if you trade forex, you should trade to make money and that's it.

I know traders who trade less than ten times a year and yet compound 100 - 200 % or more per annum.

This is because trading frequently has nothing to do with how profitable you are. The high odds trades don't come around that often. To Enjoy forex trading success, you need to trade the high odds trades so be patient.

If you are patient and trade infrequently you will make far more money than the trader who trades all the time.

4. A Trading Edge

If you want to learn currency trading exchange the right way, you need to understand that you need a trading edge. A trading edge is something you have and will allow you to make FX profits, when 95% of traders lose.

You need to know, be able to define it, have confidence in it and be able to apply it with discipline.

If you don't know what your trading edge is, you simply don't have one and its back to learning currency exchange until you do.

Anyone can learn currency exchange the right way and if you do it correctly and you take all the above points into consideration when devising your forex trading strategy, you can enjoy long currency trading success.

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People shop in Time's Square Toys 'R' Us store on 'Black Friday', in New York November 28, 2008. (Brendan McDermid/Reuters)Reuters - U.S. consumers sought bargains on toys, clothes and electronics as holiday shopping kicked off this weekend, but an early rush to stores was slower this year and was not likely to change a weak outlook for the season, analysts said on Sunday.

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Monday, November 17, 2008

Forex Trading Profits - Simple Tips For Triple Digit Profits Any Trader Can Use

If you want to make big triple digit profits in forex trading, these simple tips will help you even if you have never traded forex before...

Here we will give you the basis of a simple forex trading strategy which is simple to understand, can be implemented in just 30 minutes a day or less. There is a big misconception in forex trading that you get rewarded for effort - you don't, you get rewarded for being right with your trading signal and that's it.

You also don't get rewarded for trading often in fact, this causes most traders to lose which leads me into the tips.

1. Trade Infrequently

Be patient, the big trends and high profit trades don't come around every day and you need to be patient. I know traders who trade about once a month and make triple digit gains, because they are so selective with their trades.

2. Learn to Trade Long Term Trends From Breakouts

It's a fact selling breaks to important new highs or lows on a forex chart, works as most trends develop from them. If you want to know more about breakouts, simply look up our other articles, it is one of the most simple and profitable ways to trade.

Focus only on the big trends which last for many weeks or months and forget short term trading. The reason for this is you don't have the risk to reward on your side and will lose.

3. Hit High Odds Hard and Don't Diversify

This will simply dilute your gains and on a small account and most traders don't have enough money anyway, to diversify properly. When you have a trade you like, focus on it and don't be tempted to take other trades on.

4. Risk 10 - 20% Per Trade

If you are trading a high odds trade you need to hit it hard, risk 10 - 20% of your equity on it and don't make the mistake most traders do, of trailing a stop within normal volatility.

Most traders get a profit, bring the stop right up, get taken out and then the trade goes back the way they thought and makes thousands or tens of thousands of dollars and their out. I have always maintained picking the long term trend is easy, entering it and staying with it, is the hard part.

Tail your stop slowly and outside of normal volatility, sure you give a bit back when the trend changes but you will get far bigger profits overall doing this. Keep in mind if you could get just 50% of every major trend you would be very rich.

Remember This to Win

In forex trading does not require you work hard, it requires that you work smart and get the right education. If you have a simple robust forex trading strategy, are selective with your trading and have the discipline to follow long term trends, you can make a lot of money and enjoy currency trading success.

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Joseph Sullivan fills out a form at the Verdugo Jobs Center, a partnership with the California Employment Development Department, in Glendale, California November 7, 2008. (Fred Prouser/Reuters)Reuters - The U.S. economy is in recession and will contract at a faster pace in the fourth quarter, extending the decline into early 2009 as high unemployment crimps consumer spending, a survey showed.

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Sunday, November 9, 2008

Elliot Wave Trading Explained

The Elliott Wave principle is a form of technical analysis that tries to foretell trends in financial markets. It is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, an accountant who discovered the concept in the 1903s. He proposed that the prices of the market follow a specific pattern, which today they now all Elliott Waves. Elliott published his findings in the book The Wave Principle, it was published in 1938. He also had articles published in Financial World magazine in 1939 and his Flagship Nature's Laws - The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that because we as a race are moving at a constant rhythm, our actions and decisions can be predicted in rhythms too.

Elliott's model says that market prices alternate between five waves and three waves at any degree of a trend. As these waves arise, the bigger price patterns unravel in the form of a geometric shape. Inside the dominant trend, the waves 1-3-5 are the "motive" waves, and each of those has five big waves have five smaller waves beneath it. Waves 2-4 are called "corrective" waves, and they only have three sub-waves.

Each degree of a pattern in a financial market has a name, traders use symbols for each wave to show both function and degree. They use numbers for motive waves, letters for corrective waves. Degrees are somewhat relative, they are defined by form, not by size or duration.

The classification of a wave at any level can vary, traders usually agree on the standard order of levels:

- Grand Supercycle: Multi-decade to multi-century

- Supercycle: A few years to decades

- Cycle: 1 year to a few years

- Primary: A few months to a couple of years

- Intermetiate: Weeks to months

- Minor: Weeks

- Minute: Days

- Minuette: Hours

- Subminuette: Minutes

Elliott's market model relies heavily on looking at price charts. Traders study price movies to be able to sort out the waves and waves structures, and tell what prices may arise next. The application of the wave principle is a form of pattern recognition. The structures Elliott mentioned also seem familiar to a fractal. A Fractal is similar patterns appearing at every level of the trend. Elliott Waves investors say that this is just something that happens naturally and they often get bigger and grow more complex as time goes on.

The model shows that we as a human race have a psychology that develops in patterns, like buying and selling because of reflected prices. As Elliott once said "It's as though we are somehow programmed by mathematics. Seashell, galaxy, snowflake or human: we're all bound by the same order."

Author: Luis Aguirre

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Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Is There a Better Automated Trading System Than the Forex Tracer? No and I Am Going to Tell You Why

The Forex Tracer was developed by investor gurus with many years of specialists currency trading knowledge and constructed by a few of the worlds best software engineers who built into it complex algorithms and detection mathematics designed to produce highly profitable trades in a timely fashion for extended periods. Since it was manufactured by professional traders and software developers that are using this each day themselves, it was intended that the end user receive the tightest spreads, the maximum payouts and the greatest returns on their investments possible.

Currency trading is a preposterously complicated procedure that encompasses processing massive amounts of data instantaneously and evaluating it almost as quickly to achieve the maximum results. Even to attempt to compete in this field without an automated currency trading system is just preposterous! The vast majority of your competition in opening and closing a position is coming from banks, brokerage firms and other large financial institutions. These exceptional large firms all employ automated FX trading systems. Do you want to start trading so far behind the curve that it is almost impossible to win if you don't have a software based trading platform? Since it is your hard earned money that you are investing I am sure the answer is no.

The Forex Tracer has a multitude of testimonials at it's web site from happy and wealthier customers. The reason for that is they are making money utilizing the system. There are a wide variety of Forex trading systems on the market today and the Forex Tracer has distinguished itself in the most important area. Which is putting profits in your bank account. This system has been around for quite a while and has a following growing on being a cult, due to the fact it succeed in the one area consumers deemed to be the most important where the vast majority of the other public FX trading systems failed

William R. Alheim, Jr., CPA, MA - for reviews of the TOP 10 Forex Trading Courses visit http://www.tradingforexreviews.com/ - Good Luck! I look forward to seeing you on the trading floor making money, which you have to buy me at least one lunch with.

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Monday, November 3, 2008

The Ugly Facts of Life About Being a Petroleum Trader

Anyone who's gotten involved in the inevitable daisy chains that are part of the online international commodity "trading" business has learned a new meaning of the term "dead end."

The fact is (and this is learned from real oil traders who know from experience) that most of these "deals" are just fake, plain and simple.

Thanks to the Internet, these days some phony-baloney oil brokers even have their own websites and call themselves petroleum suppliers or petroleum companies even though they may not have completed a single real oil trade transaction in their lives. Why do they keep doing it?

I honestly don't know. The sad thing is these traders' persistence could be put to good use if they ever took the time to actually learn about the business. And don't think it's only the unschooled who fall victim to these daisy chains. Many lawyers, MBAs and educated men and women who should know better are frequently sucked in too.

When real petroleum companies deal with real refiners in foreign countries, the standard procedure is that the seller makes a firm offer to the buyer - subject to whatever he needs done - and the buyer then takes a look at the offer and says either we've got a deal or we don't.

Simple. It's just like any other trade transaction in that regard. Too many buzzwords and too many qualifiers usually mean you should stay clear. And contacts who are actively seeking banking information before any discussion of product are usually non-players.

What about discounts? Real traders know there's no discount on orders whether it's a big deal or a small deal but the "play traders" believe that if the deal is bigger, there should be a bigger discount. This is another example of not knowing the industry.

Instead of looking for suppliers of huge amounts of oil in its various forms, the real buyers know that no single supplier can come up with one million barrels a month (an amount frequently tossed around) because the refining capability just isn't there.

What about someone fronting for a rich Saudi sheik?

Fat chance, say the real traders. In the case of Saudi Arabia, there are only two legitimate organizations that sell oil on behalf of the country or an oil consortium. Someone who says he's selling on behalf of a Saudi sheik is just, well, full of sheik!

And if they start talking about millions of barrels per month it's almost certainly not real unless they're talking about crude oil.

Remember, a broker's entire job is to help a petroleum company's trading department find or sell oil and related products so that he will receive a commission when the deal comes together. Will you get paid? That's always an issue for export intermediaries but it can be especially tricky in the oil business.

The fact is that most oil companies -- and especially the big ones -- have traders in their marketing departments who operate honestly and fulfill obligations to brokers. But there are some independent and smaller companies who treat brokers shabbily and their reputations are widely known - another reason to get smart on the oil business before you dive in.

Surprisingly, you will probably find that many of the bigger oil trading companies will not only accept your services but may also provide advice and assistance.

So what's the bottom line?

Like I said before, it ain't easy. And you've got to know what you're doing. The fact is, petroleum marketing is a dog-eat-dog business and if you're a broker, you'd better have the resilience and perseverance to work through the baloney and outright deceit which seems to attach itself to petroleum trading.

Frankly, unless you have contacts in or familiarity with the petroleum industry, I recommend you stay with small- and mid-sized product manufacturers who are not exporting their products. It may not be as exotic as trading in petroleum, but it works - and you can make some real money. If you insist on trading in the volatile petroleum industry, try to find someone who will mentor you on the ins and outs. This is probably the best way to make sure you don't get "burned" by oil.

Dennis Hessler is the publisher of The Computer User's Guide to Running Your Own Exporting Company and numerous other books, video tapes, software packages and The International Trade Connection newsletter which is designed to show entrepreneurs new to exporting how to get involved in the booming global market.

Learn more about international trade at his website, http://www.spyglasspoint.com You can also download a free sample copy of The International Trade Connection at the site. If you have questions about any of his products or international trade in general, e-mail Dennis at Dennis@spyglasspoint.com. Spyglass Point Productions, P.O. Box 13141, Pensacola, FL 32591 U.S.A.

Reuters - Internet search leaders Yahoo and Google have given the Justice Department a revised version of their search advertising partnership in hopes of winning antitrust approval, the Wall Street Journal said on Monday.

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Sunday, November 2, 2008

Hedge Fund Methodologies - How To Price Spreads And Baskets

Introduction

Hedge funds are always in the media, and frequently regarded as secretive and esoteric.

This is largely due to a a lack of detailed specific information regarding what hedge funds actually do. To help combat this, I have decided to write a short series of articles describing how long/short equity strategies may be defined.

Long/short equity hedge funds generally go long certain shares. And short others. Some may maintain a market neutral position. This means that for every million pounds of stock that they hold, they'll short a million pounds of another stock. Others may have a long bias. For example, maintaining a 70% long, 30% short portfolio.

The portfolio selection processes can be discretionary or systematic. In this opening article, I shall describe the basic pricing process, and move on to technical selection processes at a later date.

Pricing Products

In order to compare stocks, the prices need to be normalised to enable a like for like comparison. For example, if stock XYZ goes up by 10% and stock ABC goes up by 10%, then we'd probably want a market neutral spread between the two to remain static.

This is commonly done by dividing prices by a "base price", where the base price is normally a recent historical price of the associated stock.

For example, if XYZ closed at 232 last night, we could set the base price to be 232. Assume XYZ opens at 250 the next morning. The rebased price would be 250/232 = 1.07759.

It is clear that this represents an overnight increase of 7.759%.

Now assume that ABC has moved from 450 to 459. Using 450 as the base price, the new rebased price would be 1.02.

The spread between XYZ and ABC is therefore:

1.07759 - 1.02 = 0.05759

ie. The spread has moved 5%.

So a trader who'd been long the spread over night, holding a market neutral position, would have made a 5% return on the nominal value of his position.

This concept can be expanded to baskets of shares. For example, if a trader wanted to trade a market neutral position of XYZ against a 50/50 weighted basket of ABC and DEF, the rebased spread would be:

n(XYZ) - 0.5 * n(ABC) - 0.5 * n(DEF)

where

n(X) = (Price of X) / (Base price of X)

In essense, these simple pricing methodologies are used to define new synthetic tradable products. Unlike normal shares, they do not follow lognormal random walks, and do not have an upwards drift. However, some traders and hedge fund managers believe that they possess inefficiencies that can be exploited.

Some of these inefficiencies will be investigated in later articles.

Jon C is an Internet Entrepreneur and Trader. If you have any questions regarding this article, please contact him via the comments for on

http://www.dawjee.com

Reuters - Evidence of a weakening economy and further global efforts to avert recession dominate financial markets this week, so much so that the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday is almost taking a back seat.

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